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Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$ 107.5 bn, witnessing a year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 1.85%, while non-oil exports are forecast to amount US$ 91.7 bn, with a y-o-y growth of 7.39%, during Q3 (October-December) of FY2025. Non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are forecast to amount US$ 82.7 bn, with a y-o-y growth of 7.8%, during Q3 (October-December) of FY2025. Positive growth in India’s exports could be as a result of India’s continued strong economic activity backed by sustained momentum in manufacturing and services sector, improving demand prospects in trading partners, supported by expected global monetary easing. The outlook is, however, subject to risks of global uncertain prospects in select advanced and emerging economies, geoeconomic fragmentation, the middle east and west Asia crisis, risk of intensification of protectionist policies, and global supply chain disruptions, among other factors. The positive growth rate in total merchandise exports, non-oil exports, and non-oil & non-gems and jewellery exports, are likely to continue in last quarter of the financial year.

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first fortnight of the months of May, August, November, and February for the corresponding quarters, based on its Export Leading Index (ELI) model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 4th quarter of FY 2025 (i.e., January-March 2024) would be released during the first fortnight of February 2024.

The improvisations to the model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Dr. Sunil Kumar, Adviser, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor,  Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Director, Madras School of Economics, Chennai; and Professor C. Veeramani, Director, Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country. 

______________________

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, 8th Floor, Maker Chamber IV, Jamnalal Bajaj Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021; T: +91-22-2286 0363/ 0310/ 0311. 
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

______________________

Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$ 111.7 bn, witnessing a year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 4.2%, while non oil exports are forecast to amount US$ 89.8 bn, with a y-o-y growth of 6.26%, during Q2 (July-September) of FY2025.  Positive growth in India’s exports could be as a result of India’s continued strong economic activity backed by sustained momentum in manufacturing and services sector, expected global monetary easing and improving demand prospects in trading partners. The outlook is, however, subject to risks of uncertain prospects for advanced economies, geopolitical shocks, the middle east crisis, global supply chain disruptions and deepening geoeconomic fragmentation, among other factors.  The positive growth rate in total merchandise exports and non-oil exports, as witnessed in the previous three quarters, are likely to continue.

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first fortnight of the months of May, August, November, and February for the corresponding quarters, based on its Export Leading Index (ELI) model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 3rd quarter of FY 2025 (i.e. October-December 2024) would be released during the first fortnight of November 2024.

The improvisations to the model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Dr. Sunil Kumar, Adviser, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor,  Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Director, Madras School of Economics, Chennai; and Professor C. Veeramani, Director, Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.

______________________________

For further information, please contact: Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, 8th Floor, Maker Chamber IV, Jamnalal Bajaj Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021; T: +91-22-2286 0363/ 0310/ 0311 E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of India Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to uncertainties related to growth prospects of select major trade partners, inflationary pressures, tighter global monetary and financial conditions and geopolitical uncertainties.  The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.

Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$ 116.7 bn, witnessing an y-o-y growth of 12.3%, while non-oil exports are forecast to amount US$ 93.9 bn, witnessing an y-o-y growth of 10.7%, during Q1 (April-June) of FY2025.  These positive growth rates are expected to be witnessed in continuation of the positive growth witnessed during the last two quarters of the previous financial year. Positive growth in India’s exports could be as a result of India’s strong GDP growth fundamentals and outlook, sustained momentum in manufacturing and services sector, backed by expected global easing of monetary tightening spurring global demand, and to some extent due to base effect. The outlook is, however, subject to risks of uncertain prospects for advanced economies, geopolitical shocks, the middle east crisis leading to the intensification of the Red Sea crisis and deepening geoeconomic fragmentation, among other factors.  Growth in exports is expected to continue to witness a positive momentum in the forthcoming quarters.  

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first fortnight of the months of May, August, November, and February for the corresponding quarters, based on its Export Leading Index (ELI) model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 2nd quarter of FY 2025 (i.e. July-September 2024) would be released during the first fortnight of August 2024.

The improvisations to the model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Head,  Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Adviser, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; and Professor C. Veeramani, Director, Centre for Development Studies, Trivandrum.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country. 

_________________________________________

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, 8th Floor, Maker Chamber IV, Jamnalal Bajaj Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021;
T: +91-22-2286 0363/ 0310/ 0311 
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

______________________

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of India Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to uncertainties related to growth prospects of select major trade partners, inflationary pressures, tighter global monetary and financial conditions and geopolitical uncertainties.  The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.  

Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$ 118.2 bn, witnessing an y-o-y growth of 2.96%, while non-oil exports are forecast to amount US$ 95 bn, witnessing an y-o-y growth of 4.55%, during Q4 (January-March) of FY2024.  These positive growth rates are expected to be witnessed against the backdrop of negative growth seen during the first two quarters of the year. Positive growth in India’s exports could be as a result of India’s strong GDP growth fundamentals and outlook and expected global easing of monetary tightening spurring global demand. The outlook is, however, subject to risks of uncertain prospects for advanced economies, geopolitical shocks, the middle east crisis leading to the intensification of the Red Sea crisis and deepening geoeconomic fragmentation, among other factors.

With these forecasts, India’s total merchandise exports for the full year for FY2024 are expected to be at US$ 435.3 billion, while non-oil exports figures are likely to be maintained at the previous year’s level.  However, oil exports are expected to remain subdued during the year, contracting by US$ 12.5 billion, compared to the FY2023.

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first fortnight of the months of May, August, November, and February for the corresponding quarters, based on its Export Leding Index (ELI) model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 1st quarter of FY 2025 (i.e. April-June 2024) would be released during the first fortnight of May 2024.

The improvisations to the model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Head,  Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; and Professor C. Veeramani, Director, Centre for Development Studies, Trivandrum.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.

_______________________________
For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, 8th Floor, Maker Chamber IV, Jamnalal Bajaj Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021;
T: +91-22-2286 0363/ 0310/ 0311
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in
___________________________________

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of India Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to uncertainties related to continued slowdown in select major trade partners, high inflationary pressures, tighter global monetary and financial conditions and geopolitical uncertainties.  The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.

Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to consistently remain above US$ 100 bn for the fourth consecutive quarter (January-March) of FY2023, amounting to US$ 110.9 bn, while non-oil exports are forecast to amount to US$ 87.7 bn during the same period. India’s exports could be shadowed by deepening global energy crisis, tighter global monetary and financial conditions, continued slowdown in select major trade partners and continued uncertainty around the Russia Ukraine conflict.  Despite a contraction in exports during the last two quarters of the current financial year, India is expected to witness all-time record high merchandise exports of US$ 447.3 bn during FY2023.  Non-oil exports are forecast to clock US$ 350.5 bn for the full year.  

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first fortnight of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 1st quarter of FY 2024 (i.e. April-June 2023) would be released during the first fortnight of June 2023.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.  

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, 
Research & Analysis Group, 
Export-Import Bank of India, 
8th Floor, Maker Chamber IV, 
Jamnalal Bajaj Marg, 
Nariman Point, 
Mumbai 400 021; 
T: +91-22-2286 0363/ 0310/ 0311 
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of India Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to deepening global energy crisis, tighter global monetary and financial conditions, continued slowdown in select major trade partners and continued uncertainty around the Russia Ukraine conflict.  The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.

Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to remain above US$ 100 bn (US$ 100.5 bn) during the third quarter (October-December) of FY2023, notwithstanding some y-o-y contraction (5.9% over the corresponding quarter of the previous year). Non-oil exports are forecast to amount to US$ 80.5 bn during the said period, (contracting by 9.7% over the previous year). India’s exports could be shadowed by deepening global energy crisis, tighter global monetary and financial conditions, continued slowdown in select major trade partners and continued uncertainty around the Russia Ukraine conflict.  While a negative growth is likely to be witnessed during the first two months of the quarter, however due to recent domestic policy changes and envisaged improvement in the external environment, there could be a recovery in India’s exports in the coming months.   

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 4th quarter of FY 2023 (i.e. January-March 2023) would be released during the first week of March 2023.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.  

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala,
Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group,
Export-Import Bank of India,
8th Floor, Maker Chamber IV,
Jamnalal Bajaj Marg, Nariman Point,
Mumbai 400 021;
T: +91-22-2286 0363/ 0310/ 0311 
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of India Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to deepening global energy crisis, tighter global monetary and financial conditions, continued slowdown in select major trade partners and continued uncertainty around the Russia Ukraine conflict.  The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.

Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$ 114.4 bnduring the second quarter (July-September) of FY2023, growing at 11.4% over the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Non-oil exports are forecast to amount to US$ 91.7 bn during the said period, growing at 5.4%over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.  The rise in India’s exports could be shadowed by softening global commodity prices, possible slowdown in major trade partners, along with inflationary pressures and tight monetary policiesaround the world. 

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exportsand non-oil exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 3rdquarter of FY 2023 (i.e.October-December 2022) would be released during the first week of December 2022.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.  

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group,
Export-Import Bank of India, 8th Floor, Maker Chamber IV, Jamnalal Bajaj Marg, Nariman Point,
Mumbai 400 021; T: +91-22-2286 0363/ 0310/ 0311
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of India Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to commodity price volatility, and uncertainties in the global economy and the global geo-political tension.The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.

Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to continue to cross the US$ 100 bn mark, for the fourth consecutive quarter in a row.  The first quarter exports would be close to US$ 120 bn (US$ 117.2 bn) growing at 22.7%.  Non-oil exports continue to witnessa double-digit growth (12.6%) amounting to US$ 93 bn, during the first quarter (April-June) of 2022-23.  This compares to US$ 95.5 bn and US$ 82.6 bn of total exports and non-oil exports, respectively, for the corresponding quarter of the previous year.  The rise in India’s exports could be attributed largely to the continued increase in global commodity prices driven by supply shocks, enhanced price competitiveness owing to exchange rate movements, and benefits from possible trade diversion.  The growth forecast may be subject to commodity price volatility, and uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by the current geo-political tension.

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by India Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 2ndquarter of FY 2023 (i.e. July-September 2022) would be released during the first week of September 2022.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.  

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group,
Export-Import Bank of India, 8th Floor, Maker Chamber IV, Jamnalal Bajaj Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021;
T: +91-22-2286 0363/ 0310/ 0311
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of India Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to commodity price volatility, and uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by the geo-political tension.The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.

Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to continue to cross the US$ 100 bn mark, for the third consecutive quarter in a row, amounting to US$ 111.3 bn, growing at 23%, and non-oil exports to amount to US$ 95.2 bn, growing at 15.8%, during the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2021-22.  This compares to US$ 90.4 bn and US$ 82.2 bn of total exports and non-oil exports, respectively, for the corresponding quarter of the previous year.  The rise in India’s exports could be attributed largely to the continued global growth momentum and the resultant increase in global import demand, along with favourable global commodity prices.  Total merchandise exports for the full year (i.e. 2021-22) are expected to amount to US$ 414.8 bn, growing at 42%, while non-oil exports are expected to amount US$ 353.4 bn, growing at 33%, during the same period.  The growth forecast may be subject to commodity price volatility, and uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by the current geo-political tension.  

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by India Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The forecasts are based on India Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) Model, which has shown an upward movement during the same quarter. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 1st quarter of FY 2023 (i.e. April-June 2022) would be released during the first week of June 2022.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, 8th Floor, Maker Chamber IV, Jamnalal Bajaj Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021; T: +91-22-2286 0363/ 0310/ 0311 
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of India Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to commodity price volatility, and uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by the geo-political tension. The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.   

Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to continue to cross the US$ 100 bn mark, for the second consecutive quarter in a row, amounting to US$ 105.8 bn, growing at 39.6%, and non-oil exports to amount to US$ 89.1 bn, growing at 26.8%, during the third quarter (October-December) of 2021-22.  This compares to US$ 75.8 bn and US$ 70.3 bn of total exports and non-oil exports, respectively, for the corresponding quarter of the previous year.  The rise in India’s exports could be attributed largely to the continued growth momentum in advanced economies and the resultant increase in global import demand, along with favourable global commodity prices.  

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by India Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The forecasts are based on India Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) Model, which has shown an upward movement during the same quarter. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 4thquarter i.e. January-March 2022 would be released during the first week of March 2022.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank hasdeveloped an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.  

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, Centre One Building, Floor 21, World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade, Mumbai – 400005; T: +91-22-2286 0363/ 0310/ 0311
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of India Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to commodity price volatility, uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by the global pandemic.The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.

Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$ 98.45 bn, growing at 33%, and non-oil exports to amount to US$ 85.63 bn, growing at 28.3%, during the second quarter of FY 2021-22, as compared to US$ 74.02bn and US$ 66.73 bn, respectively, for the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year.  The rise in India’s exports could be attributed largely to the low base effect, pick-up in growth in advanced economies and the resultant increase in global import demand. Increase in commodity prices have also contributed to the increase in India’s exports. 

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by India Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The forecasts are based on India Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) Model, which has shown an upward movement during the same quarter. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 3rdquarter i.e.October-December 2021 would be released during the first week of December 2021.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank hasdeveloped an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.  

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, Centre One Building, Floor 21, World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade, Mumbai – 400005; T: +91-22-2286 0363/ 0310/ 0311
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of India Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to commodity price volatility, uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by the global pandemic.The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.

Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$ 87.2 bn, growing at 70.1%, and non-oil exports to amount to US$ 78.26 bn, growing at 68.5%, during the first quarter of 2021-22, as compared to US$ 51.3 bn and US$ 46.4 bn, respectively, for the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The sharp rise in India’s exports could be attributed largely to the low base effect, pick up in global oil prices, and strong growth in advanced economies. While the peak of the second wave of infections of the COVID-19 pandemic witnessed in India during end April-May 2021, could have subdued exports during the quarter to some extent, exports from India have nevertheless been relatively resilient.

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by India Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The forecasts are based on India Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) Model, which has shown an upward movement during the same quarter. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the quarter July-September 2021 would be released during the first week of September 2021.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai. As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank had developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and nonoil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.

For further information, please contact: Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, Centre One Building, Floor 21, World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade, Mumbai – 400005; T: +91-22-2286 0363/ 0310/ 0311 E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others. These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of India Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Exim Bank. The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to commodity price volatility, uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by the global pandemic. The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy. 

Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$ 78.6 bn, growing at 4.9%, and non-oil exports to amount to US$ 73.9 bn, growing at 12%, during the fourth quarter of 2020-21, as compared to US$ 74.9 bn and US$ 65.9 bn, respectively, for the corresponding quarter of the previous year.  Consequently, aggregate exports for 2020-21 are forecast to amount to US$ 279.4 billion, witnessing a contraction of 10.8% over 2019-20. Non-oil exports are forecast to amount to US$ 256.8 billion, witnessing a contraction of 5.6% over 2019-20.The fall in India’s exports of petroleum products could be attributed largely to the global slump in demand and especially in the transportation and logistics sectors. Considering the global contraction in trade due to pandemic, Non-Oil exports from India has been resilient. Despite serious disruptions and logistical constraints exports from India have remained upbeat. 

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by India Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The forecasts are based on India Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) Model, which has shown an upward movement during the same quarter. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the quarter April-June 2021 would be released during the first week of June 2021.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank had developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.

______________________

For further information, please contact:

Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, Centre One Building, Floor 21, World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade, Mumbai – 400005; T: +91-22-2286 0363/ 0310/ 0311

E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in
______________________

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of India Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to commodity price volatility, uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by the global pandemic.The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.

Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s Non-Oil exports for the third quarter of FY2021 to amount to US$ 68.3 bn, witnessing a marginal positive growth of 0.3 percent, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year, after three consecutive quarters of contraction.  On the other hand, total merchandise exports are forecast to continue to witness a moderation to US$ 77.6 bn in the third quarter of 2020-21, as compared to US$ 79 bn in the corresponding quarter of the previous year, on the back of one of the steepest and continued contractions in India’s oil exports, witnessed since March 2020.  The forecasts are based on India Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) Model.  

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by India Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the quarter January-March 2021 would be released during the first week of March 2021.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank had developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.  

For further information, please contact:

Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, Centre One Building, Floor 21, World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade, Mumbai – 400005; T: +91-22-2217 2701/ 2708/ 2711 

E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of India Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to commodity price volatility, uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by the global pandemic and the resultant slowdown. The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.   

Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) forecasts India’s merchandise exports to increase from US$ 81.4 billion to US$ 82 billion (with an expected growth rate of 0.6%), during the second quarter of 2019-20 viz. July-September 2019, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.  The forecasts are based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI).  Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports would continue to be released on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the quarter October-December 2019 would be released during the first week of December 2019.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.  

___________________________________________________________________________________

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Chief Manager
Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, Centre One Building, Floor 21, World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade, Mumbai – 400005; T: +91-22-2217 2701/ 2708/ 2711
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

___________________________________________________________________________________

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to commodity price volatility, uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by recent developments including trade protection measures adopted by some major developed and emerging market economies, and withdrawal of GSP by the US. The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.

Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) forecasts India’s merchandise exports to increase from US$ 81.9 billion to US$ 84.0 billion (with an expected growth rate of 2.5%) and non-oil exports to increase from US$ 70.1 billion to US$ 73.0 billion (with an expected growth rate of 4.2%), during the first quarter of 2019-20 viz. April-June 2019, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.  The forecasts are based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI).  Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports would continue to be released on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecasts for India’s exports for the quarter July-September 2019 would be released during the first week of September 2019.

For the year 2018-19, Exim Bank, based on the ELI model, had forecasted India’s merchandise exports to amount to US$ 331.8 billion, which compares well with the official estimates of US$ 331.02 billion.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.

For further information, please contact:

Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Chief Manager Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, Centre One Building, Floor 21, World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade, Mumbai – 400005; T: +91-22-2217 2701/ 2708/ 2711
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to commodity price volatility, uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by recent developments including trade protection measures adopted by some major developed and emerging market economies, and withdrawal of GSP by the US. The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.

Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) forecasts India’s merchandise exports to witness a growth rate of 7.7% (increasing from US$ 80.6 billion to US$ 86.8 billion) and non-oil exports to witness a growth rate of 5.1% (increasing from US$ 70.0 billion to US$ 73.6 billion) during the fourth quarter of 2018-19 viz. January-March 2019, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.  The forecasts are based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI), which continued to show a positive growth momentum. Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports would continue to be released on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecasts for India’s exports for the quarter April-June2019 would be released during the first week of June 2019.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country. 

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Chief Manager
Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India,
Centre One Building, Floor 21, World Trade Centre,
Cuffe Parade, Mumbai – 400005;
T: +91-22-2217 2701/ 2708/ 2711
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) forecasts India’s merchandise exports to witness a growth rate of 7% (increasing from US$ 77 billion to US$ 82.39 billion) and non-oil exports to witness a growth rate of 7.2% (increasing from US$ 66.65 billion to US$ 71.45 billion)during the third quarter of 2018-19 viz. October-December 2018, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.  The forecasts are based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI), which continued to show a positive growth momentum. Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports would continue to be released on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecasts for India’s exports for the quarter January-March2019 would be released during the first week of March 2019.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/
Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Chief Manager
Research & Analysis Group,
Export-Import Bank of India, Centre One Building,
Floor 21, World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade, Mumbai – 400005;
T: +91-22-2217 2701/ 2708/ 2711
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to commodity price volatility and uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by recent developments including trade protection measures adopted by some major developed and emerging market economies. The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.

Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) forecasts India’s merchandise exports to witness a growth rate of 12.3% and non-oil exports to witness a growth rate of 12.4% during the second quarter of 2018-19 viz. July-September 2018, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.  The forecasts are based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI), which continued to show a positive growth momentum. Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports would continue to be released on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecasts for India’s exports for the quarter October-December 2018 would be released during the first week of December 2018.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Chief Manager
Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India,
Centre One Building, Floor 21, World Trade Centre,
Cuffe Parade, Mumbai – 400005;
T: +91-22-2217 2701/ 2708/ 2711
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to uncertainties in the global economy mainly driven by recent developments including trade protection measures adopted by some major developed and emerging market economies.The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.

Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank), based on its internal Export Leading Index Model,   forecasts India’stotal merchandise exports to witness a growth rate of 10.6 percent and non-oil exportsto witness a growth rate of 6 percent during the first quarter of 2018-19 viz. April-June 2018, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.  The forecastsare based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) model, which witnessed an underlying growth of 7.5% for total merchandise exports and 7.3% for non-oil exports. Forecast of growth in India’stotal merchandise exports and non-oil exports would continue to be released on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecasts for India’s exports for the quarter July-September 2018 would be released during the first week of September 2018.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country. 

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate,
Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala,
Chief Manager Research & Analysis Group,
Export-Import Bank of India,
Centre One Building, Floor 21,
World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade,
Mumbai – 400005;
T: +91-22-2217 2701/ 2708/ 2711
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) forecasts India’s merchandise exports to witness a growth rate of 5.96 percent during the fourth quarter of 2017-18 viz. January-March 2018, over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

The forecast, based on Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) model, was released on April 11, 2018. Based on the model (which considers 2011-12 as the base year), Exim Bank’s leading index for the country's exports, ELI came in at 113.56 for the fourth quarter of 2017-18.Forecast of growth in India’s exports would continue to be released on a quarterly basis, during the first week of the months of June, September, December and March, for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for April-June 2018 would be released during the first week of June 2018.

The model and the forecast result has been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Professor, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), New Delhi; and Professor C. Veeramani, Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in merchandise exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.

For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Chief Manager
Research & Analysis Group,
Export-Import Bank of India, Centre One Building,
Floor 21, World Trade Centre, Cuffe Parade,
Mumbai – 400005;
T: +91-22-2217 2701/ 2708/ 2711
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in