Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$ 124.8 bn, witnessing a year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 3.64%, while non oil exports are forecast to amount US$ 109.3 bn, with a y-o-y growth of 11.34%, during Q4 (January-March) of FY2025. Non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are forecast to amount US$ 98.5 bn, with a y-o-y growth of 10.1%, during Q4 (January-March) of FY2025.
Positive growth in India’s exports could be as a result of strong agricultural harvest, revival in manufacturing activity and improving demand prospects in trading partners. The positive growth rate in total merchandise exports, non-oil exports, and non-oil & non-gems and jewellery exports, are likely to continue in first quarter of the next financial year. The outlook is, however, subject to risks of global trade policy uncertainty, rising geo-economic fragmentation and persisting geo-political tensions.
With these forecasts, India’s total merchandise exports for the full year for FY2025 are expected to be US$ 446.5 billion, witnessing 2.2% increase over FY2024. Non-oil exports are forecasted at US$ 382 billion, while non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are forecast to touch US$ 350 billion for FY2025.
Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first fortnight of the months of May, August, November, and February for the corresponding quarters, based on its Export Leading Index (ELI) model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the first quarter of FY 2026 (i.e., April-June 2025) would be released during the first fortnight of May 2025.
The improvisations to the model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Dr. Sunil Kumar, Adviser, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Director, Madras School of Economics, Chennai; and Professor C. Veeramani, Director, Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram.
As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.
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For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, 8th Floor, Maker Chamber IV, Jamnalal Bajaj Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021;
T: +91-22-2286 0363/ 0310/ 0311.
E: dsinate[at]eximbankindia[dot]in/ viswanath[at]eximbankindia[dot]in
Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters, among others. These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of India Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Exim Bank. The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to uncertainties related to growth prospects of select major trade partners, inflationary pressures, tighter global monetary and financial conditions, and geopolitical uncertainties. The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions, and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.