Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$ 105.4 bn, witnessing an y-o-y decline of 4.8%, while non-oil exports are forecast to amount to US$ 87.3 bn, witnessing an y-o-y growth of 0.5%, during Q2 (July-September) of FY2024.  India’s exports could be shadowed by continued slowdown in select major trade partners including advanced economies, continued global geopolitical uncertainty as a result of increasing geoeconomic fragmentation and high inflationary pressures leading to tighter global monetary and financial conditions. 

India’s total merchandise exports have however, consistently remained above US$ 100 bn for eight consecutive quarters since Q2 FY2022, reflecting resilience amidst a challenging global economic situation, plagued by supply chain disruptions and geo-political tensions.  With these forecasts, India’s exports for the first half of FY2024 are expected to amount to US$ 208 bn, while non-oil exports could amount to US$ 172 bn during the same period. Surge in oil prices being currently witnessed, could also lead to increased exports for India in the forthcoming quarters.  

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first fortnight of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 3rd quarter of FY 2024 (i.e. October-December 2023) would be released during the first fortnight of December 2023.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; and Professor C. Veeramani, Director, Centre for Development Studies, Trivandrum.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.  

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For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, 8th Floor, Maker Chamber IV, Jamnalal Bajaj Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021; T: +91-22-2286 0363/ 0310/ 0311 
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

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Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of India Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to uncertainties related to continued slowdown in select major trade partners, high inflationary pressures, tighter global monetary and financial conditions and geopolitical uncertainties.  The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.