Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$ 111.7 bn, while non-oil exports are forecast to amount to US$ 86.6 bn during Q1 (April-June) of FY2024.  India’s exports could be shadowed by continued slowdown in select major trade partners including advanced economies, global financial sector stress, high inflationary pressures leading to tighter global monetary and financial conditions, and continued uncertainty around the Russia Ukraine conflict.  

India’s total merchandise exports have however, consistently remained above US$ 100 bn for seven consecutive quarters since Q2 FY2022, reflecting resilience amidst a challenging global economic situation, plagued by supply chain disruptions and geo-political tensions.

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first fortnight of the months of June, September, December, and March for the corresponding quarters, with continuous improvisation to the model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 2nd quarter of FY 2024 (i.e. July-September 2023) would be released during the first fortnight of September 2023.

The model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Coordinator, Centre for Advanced Studies, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; and Professor C. Veeramani, Director, Centre for Development Studies, Trivandrum.

As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.  

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For further information, please contact:
Mr. David Sinate, Chief General Manager/ Dr. Viswanath Jandhyala, Assistant General Manager, Research & Analysis Group, Export-Import Bank of India, 8th Floor, Maker Chamber IV, Jamnalal Bajaj Marg, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021; T: +91-22-2286 0363/ 0310/ 0311 
E: dsinate@eximbankindia.in/ viswanath@eximbankindia.in

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Disclaimer: The results presented above could be of interest to policy makers, researchers, and exporters among others.  These are growth forecasts from the Research and Analysis Group of India Exim Bank and do not necessarily reflect the views of India Exim Bank.  The growth forecast for the quarter derived from the Export Leading Index (ELI) model may be subject to uncertainties related to continued slowdown in select major trade partners, the continuing Russia Ukraine conflict, high inflationary pressures and tighter global monetary and financial conditions,.  The model would undergo continuous improvisation with revision of recent available data and advanced forecasting methodology, incorporating comments, suggestions and feedback from various quarters. Actual exports data are sourced from RBI’s Database on Indian Economy.